So I did some quick calculations today. Let me start at the beginning.

I’ve been living with a feeling that I will, in a vague future time, be “successful” and “comfortable” (financially) in a vague, undefined way. Because of this, I’ve always felt that whatever my current situation is is only temporary, on the way to a better, happier, well-off life. Basically that I am bound to “make it” at some undefinied future point. This line of thinking is my default expectation of life, but it seems suspect. So today I did some back-of-the-napkin calculations: what can I actually expect in a best case scenario?

I’ll do this in HUF, as that’s my native currency, but I’ll give some EUR figures at the end. All of this is on current HUF value and based on the current Hungarian situation. This is a best case scenario, so if more inflation happens, I’m assuming I’m also making more money, or something. Lots of handwaving here.

I’m currently 32, which means I have another 33 years until I’m 65 and can expect to retire. If, over 33 years, I save HUF 500 000 every month, at 65 I can expect to have a total net worth of about HUF 200 million. That is the best case, if everything goes well.

Of course not everything goes well in life, and to start, I’m not saving 500k/month at the moment, but let’s say the difference is offset by inheriting the family home with my brother and interest earned on savings. Let’s say, all in all, I make it to 200 million.

Let’s also assume that HUF 120 million is the lower limit to never running out of money (because interest on it is more than what I need to spend to live a comfortable life). This is an old number from another round of back-of-the-napkin from a few years ago, so probably not valid anymore, but let’s assume it still holds.

This means, that by the time I’m 65 I can expect to have a comfortable retirement and a small suburban house in Hungary (80 million in current prices kinda checks out for this).

This is THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. This is the UPPER LIMIT of what I can expect to achieve financially in my life. Anything goes wrong, any life events, mistakes or just not being the most talented, most successful, luckiest person I can be and my total is lower than this. The best I can expect, ever, is a quiet, comfortable life.

When I think about the future, I hope I’ll be able to keep this in mind: I cannot expect to be any wealthier than a slightly better off version of my parents. The maths says so. There is no way imaginable for me to achieve anything more than a small house and a safe retirement. This is not a goal, this is the jackpot for my life.

I don’t yet know what to do with this thought, but I want to keep this in mind. Hopefully I can use this knowledge to readjust my life and my priorities in the here and now, because there is no big win waiting for me down the road. I can’t say I’m overly excited about this realization, but it seems like a useful one.

Well, anyways.

HUF 500 000 is about EUR 1 240 with today’s exchange rate. HUF 200 000 000 is a bit under EUR 500 000.

Average monthly salary in Hungary in June 2024 was HUF 442 000 (about EUR 1 100). HUF 80 million gets you a house about 90 sqm, in a not-terrible suburb of Budapest.